Nikon is expecting to lose $92 MILLION in 2020 on its camera business. That's bad, but it gets worse - Nikon is planning to reduce R&D, so we can expect the rate of their technical advances to decrease. Nikon is also predicting that their market share will decrease, and the total market size is decreasing, so their revenue will inevitably drop.
We believe Nikon can pull through this, but their current plans might not be the right plans. We believe they should cater to existing DSLR customers rather than trying to push everyone to their mirrorless Z system. We believe the Z system is an area for long-term growth, but producing F-mount products will help raise cash to keep the business running in the short term. Finally, we believe Nikon should INVEST and take an even bigger loss for a couple of years, allowing them to grow their market share instead of cutting it.
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